Bye weeks are on the horizon, but with all 32 teams in action this week, another full smorgasbord of prop picks shuffles in along with NFL Week 3.
Newer bettors can be overwhelmed by the almost limitless offerings. Viewing your props as merely a derivative of how you expect the game to unfold is critical.
With that strategy in mind, here are our top five player props for Week 3.
Ryan Tannehill over 197.5 passing yards (-118 at FanDuel)
Per DVOA metrics, the Browns rank second defensively. However, a big part of their ranking involves the three points allowed the Bengals on a wet day in Cleveland.
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had all sorts of problems during the game, and it’s not a stretch to say that he’s nowhere near fully healthy this season due to a lingering calf injury.
In Week 2, Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett threw for 222 yards.
FanDuel has a projection under 200 passing yards for Tannehill, and that number is short.
It’s worth noting that according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Tannehill ranks seventh in intended air yards per attempt (8.6 per game), whereas Burrow and Pickett rank 23rd and 24th.
Tyler Allgeier over 40.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
The Atlanta Falcons are flying high and off to a 2-0 start. A big part of their success has been the running game behind the duo of Allgeier and Bijan Robinson.
Robinson will get the bulk of the headlines as a first-round rookie, but Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith seems committed to getting Allgeier touches, especially near the goal line.
Interestingly, Allgeier (31) has two more carries than Robinson (29) through two games.
And although Atlanta is tied for first (51%) with Dallas in average run rate, their average margin of victory (+7.5) is 22.5 points less than the Cowboys.
Allgeier posted at least 48 rushing yards in his two games against the Panthers (ninth) and Packers (14th), two teams ranked higher in run defense EPA than the Lions.
Look for the Falcons to continue to share the workload with Allgeier rushing for over 40.5 yards.
Jordan Love over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+135 at BetMGM)
Green Bay missed a golden opportunity to stay perfect on the season after blowing a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Falcons.
The 1-1 Packers host New Orleans to take on a Saints team off to a 2-0 start.
New Orleans (+2.0) has the lowest margin of victory of any of the remaining undefeated teams. And according to TeamRankings, the Saints sit third in their luck factor metrics.
We’ve noticed with Green Bay the offense might not always look fluid, but it has been potent inside the red zone — tied for first with an 83.3 percent touchdown conversion rate.
Love ranks fourth (75.2) in the league in Total QBR with six touchdowns on the season and has yet to throw an interception.
Raheem Mostert under 13.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
I don’t want to rely on too many overs, which ushers in this play on Mostert receiving yards.
The Dolphins running back had a heavier workload in Week 2, with 18 rushing attempts compared to 10 in the season opener.
Mostert gets the bulk of carries, but Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel will continue to use Mostert sparingly in their passing game.
In Week 1, the Dolphins had 466 receiving yards against a Chargers team that ranks 29th in EPA against the pass, and Mostert still finished with two catches for 13 yards.
Miami already has five players with at least 65 receiving yards, and McDaniel said he’s ready to roll out rookie running back De’Von Achane in a more consistent role starting Sunday.
JuJu Smith-Schuster under 35.5 receiving yards (-115 at PointsBet)
Smith-Schuster signed a three-year deal worth $33 million and signs pointed to the former Steelers and Chiefs receiver playing a major role.
Through two games, he’s averaging just 30.5 receiving yards and has yet to score a touchdown.
A closer look at his NFL Next Gen Stats reveals that Smith-Schuster (-2.1) ranks 97th among 99 players in yards after catch above expectation (YAC +/-) with at least eight targets.
Enter the New York Jets, a team with a strong secondary.
New York ranks 13th in defensive DVOA, and Smith-Schuster will likely line up against Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner.
Per Pro Football Focus, Gardner is tied for 10th in pass coverage with a 79.2 rating.
Despite being tied for second on the team in targets (13), Smith-Schuster is only fifth in total reception yards (61).
Given the matchup with Gardner and this being a divisional game, I like the Patriots wide receiver to stay under 35.5 receiving yards.